Will Vitor Crack Anderson's Code?

From a pure talent perspective, it's hard to think of a fight between two better fighters in UFC history than Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort. For fans who've been around the sport for awhile, the image of Vitor running Wanderlei Silva straight backwards with blistering punch after punch and driving him into the mat like a tent stake with still more punches is forever etched in memory. "The Phenom" was seen as the most apt nickname around, as Vitor used breath-taking hand speed to close out opponent after opponent.

Every fight it seemed as if his mythical status grew. We heard rumors of the Gracie's saying Vitor was the best they'd seen (which is like Michael Jordan claiming he's seen the greatest basketball player in the world both from a knowledge and ego vantage point). With a black belt from Carlson Gracie and as a member of his legendary team, Vitor combined that jiu-jitsu pedigree with his explosive south-paw boxing and you got the best in the world.

At age 19, Vitor debuted inside the octagon and fought a grand total of 190 seconds in 4 fights crushing everyone in his wake. Vitor then met Randy Couture and was ground out in what would become classic Couture fashion.

Vitor would rebound from that loss to win 8 of his next 10 losing only to legends Kazushi Sakuraba and Chuck Liddell. But then, in what would be the defining moments of his career to date, "The Phenom" was not so phenomenal as he lost 5 of his next 7 fights. Those rumors of greatness changed to rumors of laziness, lack of heart, and lost confidence.

Since then, Belfort has won 5 in a row including spectacular finishes of Matt Linland and Rich Franklin. On Saturday night, he meets the challenge of his career and his best foreseeable shot at achieving the pinnacle of his talent. Standing in his way is the pound for pound best fighter in the world, Anderson Silva. Can Vitor overcome Anderson's greatness to find his own?

Vitor's Keys

For Vitor Belfort, the key has always been to start strong and look for the finish. He is only 5-5 in fights that end in a decision highlighting what some have called his biggest weakness: conditioning. Whether that's true or not really depends on your perspective. Vitor has indeed tired in the past, but he's a fighter who relies on explosiveness and speed to win. Much like watching Tito Ortiz take everyone down in the round 1 only to get stuffed every time in round 3, Vitor loses effectiveness rapidly as he fatigues. Knowing that, he must look to damage Anderson heavily early and seek out the finish whenever he can. Certainly, he can't punch himself out or leave himself wide-open to counters, but Vitor must be willing to take risks to beat Anderson. You can't stand and stare at this champion and hope he makes a mistake. Anderson has shown a willingness, frustratingly, in the past to stare right back at you and walk out with a decision.

Vitor does have great speed, probably equal to Anderson, but doesn't possess the versatility that "The Spider" does. He has to be very busy when in punching range and be careful not to sit in Anderson's kicking range when pausing his attack. When clinched, Vitor must look to bully Anderson against the cage or take him down. Several fighters have kindly demonstrated the peril in clinching with Anderson Silva. With Vitor likely to already be at a disadvantage in the conditioning department, the last thing he needs is to have knees to the body sapping his wind.

Anderson's Keys

For Anderson Silva, this will be one of the very rare times in his career where he is fighting someone who approaches his physical talent and ability to end a fight with one shot. That fact alone is enough to make the fight interesting, but there's more here. The reality is, Anderson Silva hasn't fought anyone, because perhaps other than himself there isn't anyone, who has the pedigree and ability to finish fights the way Vitor does. Yes, Dan Henderson was dangerous with one shot, but posed little threat on the ground. Yes, Chael Sonnen nearly ground him out, but didn't possess any ability to actually finish the fight. Yes, Demian Maia was a serious threat on the ground, but had no stand-up game to bother Anderson. In Vitor Belfort, Anderson faces a man who could stop him with one big punch AND who could submit him should he get careless. Additionally, Anderson Silva is coming off the worst beating, despite a victory in the end, of his career. He was pummeled for 4 and a half rounds before finally catching Chael Sonnen.

Boxing fans can name many great fighters who met their peak's end after a particularly brutal fight late in their career. One day the light is on, the next it isn't. Can this happen to Anderson Silva?

All that said, in a fight that is nearly even on paper, Silva still holds the single biggest advantage in the match-up: versatility. While the boxing skills may be virtually even, the champion is a far better kicker, more lethal in the clinch, and more able to fight both conventional and southpaw. He has also shown the ability to go 5 rounds and win (even if it was in boring fashion). Therefore Anderson must simply be himself: patient and willing to lose a round or two in the process of wearing his opponent down. He must be careful of Vitor's power, especially in his left hand, and use kicks and knees to the legs and body to wear down the challenger. Finally, Silva must not back straight up when attacked. That has been deadly for another Silva in the past.

Prediction

It isn't every day that two of the greatest athletes in a sport's history meet, at their relative peaks, for a title. In boxing, we have greats like Ali/Frazier I, Leonard/Hagler, Robinson/LaMotta, and many others that hold a legendary place in our culture's lore. Can this fight live up?

To be sure, this fight has the chance to stink. Two fighters with distaste, but no doubt grudging respect for each other's power, could just stand and stare at each other, or be paralyzed with caution. And I know it isn't without precedent in Anderson's career to find that fight.

But for this one, I am going with greatness for a prediction. It's Vitor's best shot at meeting his potential and etching his name in the history books. A win here, along with some title defenses, would give him claim to a spot in the sports budding Hall of Fame. A loss simply cements the notion that Vitor is talented, but comes up just short in the biggest of moments.

But the truth is, I can't pick against the Michael Jordan of this sport.

Anderson Silva by TKO in round 4.