Non-PPV Fight to Watch
Cyrille "The Snake" Diabate v. Luiz "Bahna" Cain
Pride fans will remember The Snake well. Diabate is a versatile and dangerous striker. He is tall and lanky and is (overzealously) compared to Anderson Silva in terms of striking ability. While that comparison is a bit overblown, he is indeed a dangerous to throw hands with. There was a time, during his old Pride days, that The Snake was able to drive Shogun Rua to search for the takedown because of his striking ability. Of course once the fight hit the ground, Shogun stomped him into oblivion.
Before running into Lil' Nog in his last fight, Bahna Cain was rising fast up the UFC 205 lb rankings. His striking isn't nearly as polished or fluid as Diabate's, but he has more power and has UFC experience under his belt.
This fight has danger written all over it for The Snake. Former Pride fighters have struggled in their UFC debuts, and indeed Diabate lacks cage experience. I expect that to be enough for Bahna Cain to slide by The Snake if the fight goes past 1 round, but don't be surprised if Cain is looking up at the lights early on.
Main Card
Diego Sanchez v. John Hathaway
Diego Sanchez took a redneck wife beating from BJ Penn in his last fight. That beating, presumably, has caused him to rise back to 170 lbs for this fight. Because of his struggles against the very cream of the crop (losses to Koscheck, Penn, Fitch) people tend to discount "The Nightmare". But remember, his record is 23-3. He has been totally dominating in many fights. And even though BJ Penn crushed him, Sanchez showed heart by hanging in there and trying to keep fighting. He has always shown that heart.
Against that backdrop he fights undefeated John Hathaway. Although Hathaway isn't known to UFC fans well yet, he is 3-0 with the organization (including a win over tough Paul Taylor). He has shown the ability to fight the distance and outwork his opponent. He will need all of that in this fight.
The smart money here is on Sanchez. He will come out very aggressive and simply overwhelm Hathaway early in route to a 1st round TKO.
Lil' Nog v. Jason Brilz
Jason Brilz steps in as a last minute replacement for Forrest Griffin. As such, this fight has much more risk for Lil' Nog. In fighting Griffin, a win would have vaulted him into title contention for sure, while a loss would've been defensible and to a former champion. Now I'm not sure what a win does for Nog other than having the virtue of simply avoiding a bad loss.
Brilz is 3-1 in the UFC. He is a good wrestler and an all-around tough guy. He will need to get this fight to the ground, even though he is fighting a Nogueria brother, because he stands little chance of being able to out-box Nog. Nogueria showed his power in his UFC debut by knocking out up and comer Luiz Cain.
While I am a huge Nog fan, and believe that it is very likely he will win easily, be warned: Wrestlers do well in the UFC. If Brilz can avoid the submission, he could ride out a decision victory. Also, remember the case of Nogueria's fight against Sokoudjou in Pride. Soku came in a virtual unknown and stunned Nogueria with his considerable punching power.
Brilz hasn't shown that kind of power, however, so it says here that Lil' Nog will win by 2nd round TKO.
Todd Duffee v. Mike Russow
Last time Todd Duffee fought, had you gone to the bathroom, gotten something to eat, or even blinked you would've missed it. He KO'd Tim Hague in 7 sec. Therefore, we can only say this much for certain: Duffee is a great athlete with a lot of power. Considering that fight was actually last August, it's easy to see that we have more questions about Todd Duffee than answers.
Mike Russow is a tough guy. He also is 1-0 (albeit in far less spectacular fashion) in the UFC. Although he has long since lost the bodybuilding competition to Duffee, Russow may have some tricks up his sleeve. He is known for his cool-headedness and ability to slow the pace of a fight to what he wants. Think of a less skilled and experienced Roy Nelson.
Though I can see ways that Russow could survive an early onslaught and wear Duffee out, I believe the Todd Duffee coming out party is here. Beware landing an early shot that doesn't hurt Russow as much as it appears (and consequently Duffee wearing himself out), and Duffee takes a solid TKO win back to Indiana.
Michael Bisping v. Dan Miller
Two fighters that are well rounded. Two fighters that aren't bad at anything, and aren't great at anything. Two fighters that are very similar. Miller may prefer the submission game, Bisping the striking game, but both guys can do their thing in either venue.
Problem for Miller is that he has lost 2 in a row (Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia) and isn't actually better at any aspect of the MMA than Bisping. Bisping will use movement, timely aggression, and striking accuracy to send Miller home with another unanimous decision loss.
Main Event: Rampage Jackson v. Rashad Evans
Two former champions, both in the UFC and shit-talking, will lace 'em up at UFC 114. There are several things to consider here.
Rashad Evans is no slouch however you'd like to cut it. He has a 19-1-1 record and has shown the ability to win a fight early, late, or by decision. He has the wrestling game to control almost any fighter, and has shown the speed and punching power to end a fight at any moment. Although he hasn't shown much of a submission game, he hasn't been submitted (or even been close) and I certainly don't expect Rampage to change that.
The first key difference I see between these two men is experience. Rashad Evans does hold wins over Michael Bisping, Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell's corpse, and Thiago Silva. In reality though, he beat a way-past-it Chuck Liddell, a middleweight in Bisping, a suddenly passive Silva, and a bit of a mystery in terms of real contender status in Griffin. His best test came against Lyoto Machida....he didn't win.
Rampage, on the other hand has fought Wanderlei Silva 3 times (losing to him twice in Wanderlei's prime) Shogun Rua, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson, Chuck Liddell (back when Chuck still looked invinciable), Ricardo Arona, Sakuraba, Minowa-man, and on and on. His list of opponents literally reads like a Hall-of-Fame program. While I have doubts about Rashad's ability to deal with Rampage's intensity, strength, and power, I have no doubts about Rampage's ability to deal with Rashad.
Rashad will win if:
Rashad Evans needs to use his superior quickness to get angles to land strikes. He must avoid extended exchanges with Rampage, as Rampage has a granite chin to Rashad's questionable one. He also must avoid coming straight in, even though he's quicker, because Rampage has gotten adept at slipping the first punch and countering very hard (see Rampage v. Wanderlei 3). Rampage has shown vulnerability to leg kicks (see Rampage v. Griffin), and can sometimes appear stubborn in the cage with an unwillingness to adapt. If Rashad can land a few leg kicks early, he should stick with it until Rampage adjusts. Rashad must also trust his wrestling. Rampage has no bottom-game to speak of, therefore any takedown Rashad can secure, count on it leading to damage from the top position. If Rashad feels like Rampage is beginning to load up and trade punches, he must shoot for the double at least to keep Rampage honest.
Rampage will win if:
Rampage must use careful pressure against Rashad. He is the more experienced and skillful striker. Rashad has a bad habit of picking his front foot up much too high when moving. Rampage can time that step and attack during the step. He must cut the cage off and get Rashad near the fence before exploding into a combination. A classic strategy of trying to make it a "fight in a phone booth" is needed here. Attacking too fast, too early, will result in a takedown. If taken down, Rampage must try to get up immediately, for he is at a big disadvantage when under Rashad Evans. Rampage must also respect Rashad enough to admit that Rashad is versatile and dangerous. He must be willing to adjust to what Rashad is doing and punish him for trying leg kicks or takedowns.
Prediction
Rashad Evans has a lot of tools. He also has the advantage of having fought twice since Rampage last fought (well over 14 months ago now). However, that will not be enough. Other than scoring multiple takedowns, there is no way for Rashad to win this fight. Rampage will shake off the rust early and land too many power shots for Rashad to handle. Rampage via 2nd rd TKO.
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