Which Alan Belcher will we see? Is Patrick Cote healthy and ready to fight? Ah, these rhetorical, and cheesy Sportscenter lead-in questions, work well for the start of a blog. Thanks for humoring me. :)
Alan Belcher has been a fighter on the brink for awhile now. With a 6-4 record in the UFC and wins over good-but-not-great opponents like Dennis Kang and Wilson Gouveia, Belcher has long been viewed as a talent that's just on the outside of the title contender fringe. For sure, Belcher is a gifted striker and he has shown improvement in his ground game on a consistent basis. But for all the focus on "signature wins" on a fighter's resume, it's really the "signature winning streaks" that matter. Twice Belcher has won two fights in a row inside the Octagon only to lose in his next bout. With this fight, though, he will have a shot to make it 3 out of 4 over quality opponents.
No piece of data drives home the importance of winning streaks more than simply looking at Belcher's opponent, Patrick Cote. Cote has a bizarre record (4-5) in the UFC, if only because he lost his first 4 fights, then won his next 4 fights before Anderson Silva used the dark side of the force to destroy Cote's knee. The immediate thought is that Cote has faced tougher competition. In reality, though Cote has losses to Tito Ortiz and Chris Leben as experience, he has only one signature win, a split decision over now 170 lb Ricardo Almeida, on his resume.
Keys For Alan Belcher
Belcher is the faster, more athletic, versatile striker. He should circle away from Cote's power right hand and mix up his strikes to keep Cote off balance. Although Cote is not a dominating wrestler, Belcher should avoid the cage where he can be roughed up and the pace of the fight can be slowed. The biggest key for Alan Belcher, though, is to show up ready to fight for 3 rounds. Belcher can be dominating at times, but at other times he looks disinterested and tired.
Keys For Patrick Cote
Cote has excellent punching power and a solid chin. He should look to crowd Alan Belcher and prevent him from setting his feet to punch. Cote must close the distance anytime Belcher kicks and generally turn the fight ugly. Although the fight on the ground may be even, Cote would do well to mix in an occasional takedown to set up those hard overhand rights. Cote must also be careful not to get caught early in the fight, when nerves a ring rust may play a factor.
Prediction
The variables (Cote's knee, Belcher's inconsistency) make this a tough fight to call. In the end, though, Cote's power will nullify Belcher's speed. Cote by TKO in round 2.
Kimbo Slice v. Matt Mitrione
I won't bore you with the particulars of this one. Kimbo is a hard puncher, but that's it. Matt is a good athlete who showed some moxie on The Ultimate Fighter. I'm pulling for Matt here (since he's an Indy native and former teammate of mine).
If there's one thing I'll never understand, its the preference of excellent wrestlers to try to learn the completely foreign language of striking instead of the mostly foreign language of submissions. Josh Koscheck has long been a top contender at 170 lbs. As soon as a new face (Anthony Johnson) comes up to challenge that status, Koscheck usually dispatches of them quickly and remains. He'll have that same challenge here against the very dangerous Paul Daley.
The answer here seems simple to me. Take Paul Daley down, wear him out and rough him up, go for the submission finish. Whether Koscheck will do that or not remains to be seen. To me, that's the difference between Josh Koscheck and, 170 lb king, Georges St. Pierre: Koscheck allows ego to get in the way of making the fight easy for himself.
Keys For Paul Daley
Paul Daley has won two fights in a row, but this is a major step up. He must guard against getting blitzed early by Koscheck's speed and power. Daley must cut off Koscheck's movement (instead of following him). As he cuts him off, he should look to land quick sharp punches and not look too long for the KO. Daley must have his best sprawl ready and make Koscheck pay dearly for every takedown attempt. In sum, either Daley has to land one big shot or have the fight of his life to win.
Keys for Josh Koscheck
All Josh Koscheck has to do is shoot and take Paul Daley down. From there his superior grappling will frustrate and stifle any offense from Daley. Koscheck must remain disciplined in his game plan. At some point, he must learn to leave his ego outside the cage and play to his strengths.
Prediction
Barring a one-punch KO from Daley, Koscheck will dominate the fight and win a lop-sided decision.
I could go on and on for days about the scoring in their first fight. At the end of the day though, Shogun may have controlled the pace and landed more strikes, but he fought a very conservative fight with a decision win in mind. That is a difficult plan to execute when fighting a great champion like Machida. Anytime you leave that many very close rounds to the judges, danger ensues.
The same compelling match-up characteristics exist for this fight. At their best, this fight pits Shogun's offensive genius against Machida defensive wizardry. While fighters can perform quite differently from night to night, there are a few interesting things to take away from their first fight:
1) Shogun's speed seemed to bother Machida. In Machida's other fights, anytime someone attacked him, he countered effortlessly and stymied any offense. But Shogun was able to beat him to the punch often and win several exchanges. Machida talked of having trouble finding his timing, but it is hard to find timing when you are constantly punching second to a quick fighter like Shogun.
2) Shogun landed leg kicks nearly at will. Although the punch stat numbers showed Shogun landed more strikes, some observers noted that most of his strikes were leg kicks (somehow less valuable?). While the judges may placed a reduced value on a solid leg kick over a punch, those are still a viable offensive option for Shogun that Machida will have to make adjustments too for this fight.
3) Machida now has a great reputation. Why does this matter? Watching Shogun fight over the years has lent itself to many laid out fighters in the wake of his hurricane attacks. He often attacks relentlessly, wearing his opponents down and crushing them with the volume of his strikes. Yet, even though he didn't appear tired, he struggled to pull the trigger on many combinations against Machida. One can only assume that Machida counter striking and power are to blame.
4) Even with all the things that went "right" for Shogun, he still lost. So he has to do something different, or at least a lot more of the same.
Keys for Shogun
Shogun can do well with executing a similar game plan to the first fight with only minor tweaks. He must throw more combinations and explode when he has Machida near the fence and standing with his feet parallel. This is a bad habit of Machida's and Shogun should look to exploit it. Shogun also has vastly under-rated takedowns that he chains with combinations very well. He should look to score some points and keep Machida guessing by throwing in a couple.
Keys for Machida
Machida must stay away from the fence. Shogun really didn't land a lot of solid punches in the first fight, but the ones he did came when Machida slowed his movement and got near the fence. He must also attack more himself and put Shogun on the retreat. Great offensive fighters like Shogun often struggle when they are forced backwards for short stretches. Machida also must defend those leg kicks. Instead of checking them, he should look to step through them and land a straight right hand to keep Shogun from sitting down on his kicks.
Predicition
This is a great fight between two great fighters. If styles make fights, then this should be another great one. I am predicting the (minor) upset. Shogun by 3rd round TKO.
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