UFC 119: This Pro Makes His Picks

UFC 119 signals the arrival of major label MMA to my de-loved home, Indianapolis. While the UFC tends to reserve big-time title fights for big-time cities, this card features several good matchups with quality prospects performing for a chance to move up the ladder. Furthermore, this card features three Indianapolis area fighters who will look to show their mettle before their hometown fans. Here's a look at the matchups that make the event:

Sean McCorkle vs Mark Hunt

Fans of the now defunct Pride Fighting Championships know that Mark Hunt is a dangerous opponent. Built like a bowling ball (listed at 5'10" and 250 lbs) and possessing dynamite power, Hunt has faced many of the very best in the world including: Mirko Cro Cop, Fedor, Josh Barnett, Alistair Overeem, and Wanderlei Silva. And while he fell short in terms of record (5-6), Hunt was able to defeat both Cro Cop and Silva in consecutive New Years' Eve shows. The problem for Hunt is that those shows came in 2004 and 2005. In fact, he has lost 5 straight fights and last claimed victory in May of 2006.

Sean McCorkle is a local fighter who is built as the prototypical modern MMA heavyweight. He stands 6'6" tall and has had to cut weight hard to make the 265 limit. He is a very athletic and powerful guy, but has imposed those advantages on *ahem* less than top level opponents in local shows.

Keys
McCorkle has two major battles to fight here. First, he must manage the emotions of fighting in his hometown, in front as many people as watched his other fights combined, for the premiere organization in the world. He must remain calm, execute his game plan, and not get discouraged if he finds Mark Hunt to be a slightly tougher out than his past opponents.

To the meat of the fight, however, McCorkle must maintain range very wisely in this fight. He holds a 8" height advantage (at least) over Mark Hunt. Hunt, however, doesn't need much time to land one of those heavy looping shots on McCorkle's chin. If he does, the fight can quickly turn south for the local boy. McCorkle must use his jab wisely, circle to his right when on the outside, and clinch at every opportunity. He can use the cage and his size advantage to lean on Hunt and wear him down. Hunt's lack of a ground game will be evident, and the steroid--but not beef--free version of Big Mac should capitalize.

McCorkle by 2nd round TKO

Sean Sherk vs Evan Dunham

One of the truly great things about undercard fights are the matchups between veterans struggling to stay near the top and prospects struggling to earn a place at the table. This fight is a great example of that. Sean Sherk is a former champion and a very tough fighter. He possesses good wrestling and ground control, great conditioning, a tough chin, and capable striking. In many ways, this is a major crossroads fight for Sherk. He is now 37 years old. Detractors will point to the fact he has lost 2 of 3. Fans will say those losses were to former champ BJ Penn and current champ Frankie Edgar. I will say he is dangerously close to being stuck in journeyman territory now because he may be viewed as better than the bottom guys, but not near the top guys. Journeyman, however, is better than unemployed and that's why this fight is a must win for Sherk.

Evan Dunham is 11-0 and 4-0 in the UFC. He is versatile (2 wins by decision, 1 by submission, 1 by KO in the UFC). He has beaten the guys you'd expect an upcoming contender to have beaten (Marcus Aurelio, Tyson Griffin). This is a big opportunity for him to beat a big name, and a truly high level fighter.

Keys
Evan Dunham has 5 victories in his career by submission, however he will be wise to not try to prove his submission acumen with Sean Sherk. Sherk is well known for his ability to shut down an aggressive submission game and drag you deep into a fight. Against Sherk, you can quickly find yourself down two rounds to none and desperate. That desperation leads to risk taking on your feet, which gets you taken down, and so on. Sherk, however, isn't without his weaknesses. He tends to get caught up in only striking, or only going for the takedown. As such, after the first 2-3 minutes of the fight, he gets predictable. Dunham needs only to use good footwork, a stiff jab and leg kick, and a nice mix of striking and takedowns to frustrate Sherk and get ahead on points early. When behind, Sherk still lacks the offensive skills to finish most opponents.

Dunham by 3rd round TKO

Matt Serra vs Chris Lytle

Two of my personal favorites are set for a rematch at UFC 119. The first fight featured a lot of clinch and cagework and few of the fireworks both fighters are more well known for. Both fighters are skilled on the ground. While Serra has a deeper pedigree, both he and Lytle were controlled and beaten in similar fashion by Matt Hughes' top game. Both fighters have won often by submission, and both fighters lack the dominating wrestling needed to take the other down at will.

Both fighters are also good standing. Both have good chins and are solid punchers. It says here that Serra is a bit more technical, but both fighters are aggressive and both fighters are willing to sit in the pocket and trade. The last fight's relative lack of action may well have been due to a healthy respect for each man's skills.

Keys
Continuing the theme of similarities, the biggest key for each fighter is to be versatile and vary their attacks. Neither man is at all easy to finish, so both men must be willing to do some work throughout the fight to earn points towards a decision win. If the finish comes, so be it. That said, Chris Lytle has the attitude that he fights to entertain the fans. He has a desire, naturally, to finish every fight and to do so in exciting fashion. While this is admirable, it does cause him to be wild in his striking game, and reluctant to take advantage of opportunities in the clinch or on the ground to soften up his opponent either for a finish or a decision. Matt Serra will use his jab and full arsenal of weapons more effectively. Either man winning will make me happy, but...

Serra by decision.

Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Bader

Although few would argue that Nogueira is on his way down, in some ways this fight is similar to Sherk vs Dunham. Nogueira is a perennial contender at this point, but is 34 and can't afford losses or setbacks. He is no doubt a win or maybe two away from a title shot and is an excellent, and established, fighter. Bader is an up and comer to be sure. He won The Ultimate Fighter, is 11-0, and beat the very tough Keith Jardine in his last outing. This fight either puts "Lil Nog" in line for a title shot, or propels Bader into the upper echelon of 205 lb'ers in the UFC.

Keys

There are some who believe that Jason Brilz somehow exposed Lil Nog in Nog's razor thin split decision win in May. However, I disagree. Neither Lil nor Big Nog have ever spent much effort defending takedowns. Indeed Lil Nog generally doesn't mind finding himself on the ground given his usual chance to win by submission. Brilz was game, to be sure, but rewatching the fight shows that while Brilz may be been close on a sub attempt, the fight mostly consisted of Brilz taking Nog down and Nog getting the sweep. That said, both Nogueira brothers risk losing decisions in the wrestler dominated UFC, and Bader can be that guy if he's oh-so-careful in this one.

Ryan Bader is a great athlete with a great wrestling pedigree. The danger for him lays in being predictable. Nog can finish the fight in a flash either standing or on the ground, and like his big brother, has the chin and cardio to get that finish in any round. Indeed Nog is the type of guy who you might hit five straight times with a technique, but if you dare to throw it a sixth, he could be waiting with a counter that changes the fight. Bader must have a feel for when Nog is getting comfortable boxing and take him down. Then feel when Nog is getting comfortable on the ground and stand up. He must force Nog to fight all over the cage and never get familiar enough with Bader's attack to find the finish. Bader, however, lacks the skill to do this. Nog will light him up standing and put doubt in Bader's mind early. Bader will dive for a takedown in desperation, get it, and get promptly put to sleep.

Nog by 1st round submission.

Frank Mir vs Mirko Cro Cop

Fights, to borrow from Shrek, are like onions...they have many layers. Layer one pits a classic striker (Cro Cop) vs grappler (Mir) match. Both men are adapt at finishing quickly and violently in their respective areas, and both have the experience to impose their wills. Layer two shows that while Mir is a grappler, he's never been a great wrestler or pressure fighter. And while Cro Cop is a striker, he struggles when pressured and forced to counter punch. Indeed that makes for a strange matchup. Most grapplers would use Randy Couture's strategy for imposing their grappling by pressuring their opponent, mixing in strikes to set up takedowns, and using the cage to stifle any striking offense. These skills, however, have not often been shown by Mir who is more of a classic Jiu-Jitsu player who gets the fight to the ground by his opponent's will, pulling guard, or knocking his opponent down.

Likewise, many strikers would counter Couture's style Chuck Liddell style. Keep your back off the cage, get the wrestler to over-extend in trying to hit or grab you, and counter-punch him to sleep. But Cro Cop is a stalking striker who is far better when he's in the center of the cage and walking his opponent down. He almost stops kicking when pressured and relies on his straight left hand to stop his opponent's advance. While that is a formidable weapon, Cro Cop doesn't throw combinations off that left hand often, and he hasn't shown one shot KO power with it in the UFC.

Keys

This fight has many questions: Will Frank Mir dare to strike with Cro Cop? Mir has shown (see: Big Nog fight) that he can counter punch effectively, but against Cro Cop that is usually a death sentence. If we assume that he can't strike with Cro Cop, how will Mir get the fight to the ground? He has rarely shown a good shot in his career, and Cro Cop has an underrated sprawl. Indeed, Cro Cop has spent his entire career fending off takedown attempts, and he's no pushover in that area. How much will Cro Cop dare to kick knowing his end awaits him soon after his back touches the mat?

My advice to Cro Cop would be to use his right jab, left straight combo over and over and to fire that nuclear left round kick at Mir's ribs and legs through the first, and part of the second round. He can use those sharp, straight punches to keep Mir away and pick him apart. From there, Cro Cop has the patience and skills to eventually put Mir out. My advice to Mir would be to pressure Cro Cop relentlessly. View backing up as a horrible thing and very dangerous. Force Cro Cop into scrambling situations where he can't plant and throw his shots. Use the cage to soften up and slow Cro Cop and look for that takedown, even if it means (and it probably will) pulling guard. As a excellent jiu-jitsu player, Mir must not be afraid to pull guard. From there he should be able to sweep and submit Cro Cop quickly.

This fight, however, is tailor made for a Cro Cop highlight. All the things he struggles with, wrestlers, clinch work, cage control, pressure fighters, are skills Mir doesn't readily possess.

Cro Cop by 2nd round TKO